Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends eastward from 05N18W to 02N34W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N along both of these features.

Gulf Of Mexico

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic extends southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE-E winds are occurring off Yucatan and the NW Gulf, while moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found in the rest of the western half of the Gulf and the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the rest of the basin.

Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in mainly fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf into Thu night. Locally strong winds will pulse nightly Tue through late week off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A persistent upper level trough continues to enhance the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours, across the Greater Antilles and surrounding waters. The trough will gradually weaken and move farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric conditions will remain favorable for convection capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning early this week. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding in the islands. See local weather advisories for more information.

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the central and eastern portions of the basin, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the overall weather pattern will prevail into mid-week. Late this week, SE winds will increase to fresh in the Gulf of Honduras and adjacent NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A 1024 mb high pressure centered between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda dominates the SW North Atlantic west of 55W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are noted south of 27N and west of 60W. Seas in the area described are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

Farther west, a cold front extends from 31N34W to 21N54W. Scattered moderate convection is along and just ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are evident ahead of the front to 28W and north of 25N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Behind the front to 55W and north of 26N, moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail.

The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a weak high pressure centered near Madeira. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found south of 15N and west of 30W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh northerly winds north of 22N and east of 21W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore southern Morocco. Seas are 4-7 ft in these waters. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure building N of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N through mid week. Meanwhile, large N swell associated with a gale center well north of the region over the north central Atlantic will move through the waters north of 27N and east of 60W tonight into Tue night. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SW winds off northeast Florida starting Wed as the high pressure shifts southeast ahead of a cold front moving off the Carolinas.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik